UK Grid Planning For 30 Million EVs by 2040

It needs to properly anticipate demand.

Government policies aimed at phasing out the sale of traditional combustion-engined vehicles will lead to EV sales jumping by as many as 30 million, according to Automotive News Europe.

The report cites three out of four scenarios modelled by the National Grid operator. They say that power production emissions will be negative 13 years from now, and that levels of natural gas burnt without emissions-removing technology will halve by 2038.

By 2035 it expects 80 percent of all cars on the road to be battery powered, up from three percent last year.

The National Grid has a responsibility to get its predictions right, because if EV ownership rises as predicted, it will need to cater for them.

“We see growth in renewable energy generation, including significant expansion in installed offshore wind capacity,” said Mark Herring, head of strategy at National Grid Electricity System Operator. “There is widespread uptake in domestic electric vehicles, and growth and investment in hydrogen and carbon capture technologies too.”

BloombergNEF has also predicted a rise in EV ownership in Britain, but its prediction is lower, expecting 17 million EVs on UK roads by 2040, and only 67 percent of all vehicles being EVs by 2035. That prediction also assumes that Britain’s aim of phasing out combustion-engined vehicles by 2035 isn’t met.

Smart charging will reportedly be the preferred method of charging for as many as 80 percent of households by 2050, once prices and demand have lowered to a reasonable level. Meanwhile roughly 45 percent of homes will have the ability to create 38 gigawatts of power to help out the National Grid at times of high demand.

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